With the U.S. presidential elections just two weeks away, the U.S. energy sector is facing one of those nail-biting moments where nobody seems to agree on what the future holds for the sector with the prospect of two very different presidential candidates.
On the one hand, president of fracking company Reliance Well Services Dan Doyle has made a pretty convincing case that U.S. shale could be doomed under a Biden-Harris presidency despite the pair striking a centrist tone. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Goldman Sachs counters by arguing that a Joe Biden win could be positive for oil prices by tightening shale supply—a big reason why prices crashed this year.
A middle-ground can also be found by arguing that the outcome of the elections really will not matter in the bigger scheme of things because tighter U.S. shale supply will simply give OPEC the upper hand and leeway to grab more market share.
They say hindsight is 20/20, so we probably won’t gain much clarity into the matter until well after the elections. That said, here are three energy securities that may emerge as winners under different scenarios.
#1 TAN ETF: New King of the Power Market The shift from high-carbon fuels to clean energy is in full swing, and solar stocks are enjoying their moment in the sun.
A few weeks ago, Paris-based International Energy Agency, IEA, released its flagship publication, whereby it touted solar energy as the new king of the power market. The IEA has forecast that solar will be the main driver of growth as it sets new records for deployment each year after 2022, with onshore and offshore wind taking second and third place, respectively.
It, therefore, comes as little surprise that solar ETF, Solar Invesco ETF (NYSEARCA:TAN), has been surging with ‘blue wave’ prospects as Wall Street grows more bullish on the odds of a decisive Democratic victory that could provide a big push towards renewable energy.
TAN has gained 61% over the past 90 days, and a sizzling 140% as new polls show Joe Biden has extended his lead over President Trump to 16 points–the widest so far for this election cycle. Biden’s lead is the best of any challenger since 1936, the year when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race. Related: Biden’s $2 Trillion Energy Plan Could Crush Natural Gas
Biden has announced aggressive plans to ramp up renewable energy production.
Indeed, Biden has proposed a staggering $1.7 trillion in federal spending over the next decade to achieve this goal, with the private sector expected to chip in with the balance. Biden also says the taxpayer costs can be recovered by repealing the generous tax bonanza that Trump granted U.S. fossil fuels.
Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) is an exchange-traded fund solely dedicated to companies in the solar sector. The ETF tracks the MAC Global Solar Energy Index, which itself tracks companies involved in a wide range of solar technologies, provision of raw materials, manufacturing, installers, solar plant operations, etc. Currently, TAN is the only ETF strictly devoted to solar energy, thus providing excellent exposure to the sector.
TAN boasts assets under management (AUM) of $1.76B and an expense ratio of 0.71%.
TAN’s top 5 holdings include:
- SolarEdge Technologies–7.83
- Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd–6.68%
- First Solar–6.64%
- Enphase Energy Inc.–6.59%
- Sunrun Inc.–6.33%
Source: CNN Money
#2 First Solar: Most Bankable Solar Stock
Source: CNN Money
First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) is the largest solar manufacturer in America and the Western Hemisphere and also the third-largest in the world with revenue (TTM) of $3.1 billion. First Solar manufactures solar panels, photovoltaic power plants, and related services, including construction, maintenance, and recycling of solar products. The Tempe, Arizona-based company employs thin film semiconductor technology to achieve enhanced efficiency and sustainability in its solar modules. Although FSLR is trailing TAN with YTD gains of 52.7% vs. 139.6%, it’s one of the energy stocks that could get a big boost under a Biden presidency thanks to its dominant position in the American market. During its latest earnings call, First Solar estimated that ~75% of its potential booking opportunities were in North America. Meanwhile, FSLR maintained its 2020 module-production guidance and also provided impressive module-sales guidance. Related: Oil Majors Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place
More importantly, FSLR has a stronger balance sheet than most of its peers, with an impressive current ratio of 3.66 compared to 1.04 by JinkoSolar (NYSE:JKS), 1.14 by Canadian Solar (NASDAQ:CSIQ), and 0.47 for Daqo New Energy (NYSE:DQ).
Interestingly, the three companies have outperformed FSLR with YTD gains of 217.8%, 76.7%, and 296.3%,…
Read More: Three Energy Stocks To Watch On Election Day