“Despite all the attacks seen in the last fortnight, grains continue to flow from both sides,” Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera said. Spot prices have been depressed by strong availability due to large Russian exports, he said.
Russia’s warning shots at a cargo ship approaching Ukrainian waters on Sunday increased risks for civilian ships moving grain, StoneX chief commodities economist Arlan Suderman wrote in a note.
Ukraine has also said that it too would consider any ships moving toward Russian ports as potentially military targets. “That is raising concerns that Ukraine might strike at Russia’s ability to export commodities.”
The Sukru Okan, a dry-freight carrier, was bound for Izmail when a Russian naval patrol ship opened fire after the cargo vessel’s operators didn’t respond to a request for inspection, Russia’s Defence Ministry said. It was then allowed to resume its trip, according to the ministry.
Russia warned last month that ships headed to Ukrainian ports would be considered as potentially carrying military cargo, heightening overall risks in the region.
“These actions exemplified Russia’s deliberate policy of endangering the freedom of navigation and safety of commercial shipping in the Black Sea,” Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said Monday in a statement.
Ukraine’s seaports have been blocked since Russia quit the export deal. That has made its Danube River ports, such as Izmail, increasingly important to send its crops abroad.
Katerina Kononenko, an operations manager at Avalon Shipping in Romania – which works with vessels in the Sulina channel and on the Danube – said traffic was normal.
Wheat futures remain around 22 per cent lower this year amid bumper harvests.
On Friday, the US Department of Agriculture raised its estimate for Russian wheat exports to 48 million metric tons for the 2023-24 season. That means almost a quarter of the world’s wheat trade will now come from Russia.
Bloomberg
Read More: Wheat market shrugs of Black Sea flash points as exports flow