Crude Oil Weekly Forecast – 24/03: Highs, Then Dip (Chart)

WTI Crude Oil had a rather interesting week of trading as it produced highs not been seen since the first week of November, but then a slight downturn was demonstrated.

• WTI Crude Oil will start this week of trading slightly below its starting point on last Monday.
• However the commodity went into the weekend near the 80.630 level which remains within sight of important long-term resistance.
• WTI Crude Oil touched a high of nearly 83.130 on Tuesday, but then began to produce an incremental reversal lower.

The lows in Crude Oil last week were seen on Thursday and Friday when a price of 80.200 was challenged on the 21st. Perhaps of interest for technical traders is the acknowledgement that Friday’s lows only hit the 80.300 vicinity before sparking some upwards momentum. The price of WTI Crude Oil remains elevated when one and three month charts are being examined. Six month technical charts show the commodity is now within sight of important resistance which must be taken into consideration.

WTI Crude Oil supply in the U.S showed a two million barrel shortfall last week, but this didn’t cause a higher rupture higher in price. In fact the value of WTI Crude Oil had seen its highs the day before. Yes, experienced traders may cynically say ‘insiders’ created selling positions after the highs were hit on Tuesday to take advantage of the potential shortfall in inventory.

WTI Crude Oil has created a bullish trend which has seen an upswing in price, including normal reversals lower, since the middle of December. Last week’s ability to touch highs was important, but the lower moves afterwards also shows that speculative buying is not hitting a critical mass, in other words the price upwards has been attained in a rather polite manner. In commodity trading ‘polite’ climbs upwards often mean there may be more upside to be found.

If WTI Crude Oil maintains support levels above the 80.000 USD mark early this week it may prove to be significant. The last time the commodity traded below the 80.000 ratio was on the 15th of March. This past Friday WTI Crude Oil did manage to climb from its lows seen earlier in the day and trade above the 81.000 level, but as the weekend approached selling did seem to weigh upon the commodity.

• Global supply of Crude Oil remains efficient, while Red Sea shipping continues to be hampered; producers and buyers have not created a spike higher based on fear.
• WTI Crude Oil still remains within a rather well behaved price range which has not produced massive volatility. Last weeks’ highs were accomplished in a rather comfortable manner as the 83.000 USD mark was penetrated briefly.

The upwards trend in WTI Crude Oil still needs to be given some respect from traders. Last week’s early highs and developing downturn are of interest; early trading this coming week will prove important technically. The 80.000 USD support level in WTI Crude Oil likely needs to prove durable, this for day traders who remain with a bullish outlook and want to continue pursuing upwards momentum taking into account the trading results demonstrated the past couple of weeks.

A sustained move above the 81.300 mark early and maintained into Tuesday would mean bullish sentiment is still lingering and could retest highs seen last week quickly. However, if WTI Crude Oil breaks below the 80.000 USD ratio and sees sustained trading below early this week and into Tuesday, this could open the door for the impression the commodity has some room to venture lower. Support near the 79.250 mark should be watched if a test emerges. Trading below this number technically looks like it could create price velocity lower which could ignite a test of the 88.000 vicinity.

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