The biggest gathering on climate change, COP 28, concluded this week. The final version of the first global stock take document, a key outcome of this year’s conference, was released in the early hours of December 13th, shortly after the official conclusion of COP 28 on December 12th. One key reason for the delay was the extensive deliberations over the choice of words ‘phase out’ vs. ‘phase down’ vs ‘transition’ to indicate the intention of aligning fossil fuel use to limit global warming.
Coal, a major fossil fuel, is one of the most contentious issues at COP, as it emits 50 times more emissions than renewable sources. Coal cannot be easily removed from the energy system, as it is also a major mineral resource for the world’s largest developing countries, and therefore serving as a source of income, and employment, and a means for affordable and reliable access to energy to some of the poorest households. More than 1 million jobs in India and China could be at risk if coal is out of use, a figure that’s nearly equivalent to the population of South Dakota. This highlights the scale of the impact and therefore the need for negotiators to delicately play around the word of phasing out vs phasing down of coal in the COP discussions.
While the usage of the words ‘phase out’ vs. ‘phase down’ of coal in the COP 28 outcome document has received significant attention. There has been limited attention to what lies beyond those words in the text of the document and the bigger picture.
Moving beyond the skepticism of semantics, it is important to revisit the text which is the main point of contention. The text mentions, ‘Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.’ It is the term ‘unabated coal’ here that warrants focused discussion.
The technical term ‘unabated’, although not widely understood outside this sector, will play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of capital investment in coal sector going forward, which currently is at about 148 billion dollars.
What Is Unabated Coal?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which drives the science behind all United Nations negotiations, defines ‘unabated’ in a footnote. The footnote, at the moment, has some ambiguity which may create implementation challenges.
As per the footnote, ‘Unabated fossil fuels’ refers to fossil fuels produced and used without interventions that substantially reduce the amount of GHG emitted throughout the lifecycle; for example, capturing 90% or more CO2 from power plants, or 50-80% of fugitive methane emissions from energy supply.
What this means is that coal power plants unable to capture 90% of their emissions or 50-60% of methane emissions are unabated. And these should be phased down as per the recent COP 28. Beyond this footnote, there is no official internationally agreed guiding document to aid the discourse on what distinguishes abated from unabated coal.
There are questions about whether this definition aptly captures the upstream emissions, i.e., emissions released before the coal reaches the power plant, which account for almost 15% of the emissions in the coal value chain.
Given the ambiguity, a rigorous, science-based definition of the term is vital to ensure that the accelerated phase-down is effective.
The Challenging Journey From Unabated To Abated Coal
Carbon capture is a technology that enables the conversion of conventional coal into what is known as ‘abated coal’. This method, carbon capture and storage, involves the capturing and storing of emissions using appropriate infrastructure. Although costly, this technology considered crucial for achieving the global aim of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At the moment, the uptake of the technology is far below what is needed. There are fewer than 50 carbon capture storage plants in the world, mostly in the United States, Canada, and Australia, with the capture rate of carbon emissions ranging from 10% to 65%, which is much below the standard specified in of the official definition.
For countries like India, with large coal reserves, the challenge is more complex. In the past few years, after a period of receiving little attention, there has been a renewed interest in this technology. The resurgence is partly boosted by participation in collaborative government efforts such as Mission Innovation. However, more action is needed, particularly in mobilizing finance. Based on a recent assessment on the status of this technology in India by Council On Energy, Environment and Water, an independent policy think tank based in India, there is a…
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