For more than a month in Niger’s capital, Niamey, the democratically elected president has been a prisoner in his own home. The camouflage-clad generals who seized power say they may put him on trial. Talk of foreign intervention is met with threats of his execution.
To many people, the military takeover in Niger in late July was obviously a coup. And yet, in a prime example of contorted diplomatic-speak, Biden administration officials have so far carefully danced around the word.
That, they say, is because the word “coup” has major policy implications: Congress has mandated that the United States must halt all economic and military aid to any government deemed to have been installed by a military coup until democracy is restored in that country.
That might seem a fitting punishment for military leaders who have sabotaged a fragile African democracy. But U.S. officials worry it could also reduce America’s leverage over Niger’s future, jeopardize military operations against militants in the region, invite Russian influence and exacerbate humanitarian suffering in one of the world’s poorest countries.
The Biden administration has already paused most U.S. aid to the West African country, and representatives for the National Security Council and the State Department said the Biden administration was pursuing diplomacy as it evaluated America’s democratic and security goals for Niger. A formal determination with long-term policy consequences would originate in the State Department’s legal office.
Sarah Margon, the director of foreign policy for the Open Society Foundations, noted that such debates are growing familiar in Washington. In 2013, the Obama administration held long internal deliberations after a military takeover in Egypt, which President Barack Obama never labeled a coup.
“It is increasingly a politicized determination, predominantly influenced by security concerns — especially counterterrorism,” said Ms. Margon, whose nomination for a top State Department human rights post was blocked by Republicans last year.
Many foreign policy and pro-democracy experts say the Biden administration should forcefully, and formally, declare the events a coup — shorthand for the French phrase “coup d’état,” which roughly translates to a blow to the state — now that several weeks have passed and the military leaders who detained President Mohamed Bazoum are refusing to even negotiate.
The question has particular significance given that President Biden has made the defense of democracy a centerpiece of his foreign policy agenda. Biden administration officials have paid particular attention to democracy in African countries; in an August 2022 speech in Pretoria, South Africa, laying out the Biden administration’s vision for sub-Saharan Africa, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken used the word “democracy” 11 times, calling it one of four pillars of U.S. policy on the continent.
At stake for Niger, a U.S. ally, is hundreds of millions of dollars in American funding. According to the State Department, the United States sent about $281 million in security assistance to Niger between fiscal years 2017 and 2022, and about $664 million in health and development assistance. Over $180 million in aid from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development is “under review,” a department spokesman said.
A formal coup determination would also create pressure for the U.S. military to close two bases in the country. But those bases were established to help fight extremist groups, such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State, which for years have been destabilizing the African Sahel, the vast sweep of land south of the Sahara that includes Niger. Current law does not mandate the closure of such bases under such a determination, however.
Another worry is that severing ties with Niger might create an opportunity for Russia, whose growing presence in Africa has alarmed U.S. officials.
Throughout August, Biden officials maintained that declaring a coup would be premature because they hoped Mr. Bazoum might be freed soon and his governing power restored.
“We hope we don’t have to get to the point where we need to make that determination, because our hope is to see the constitutional order restored,” the State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller, told reporters on Aug. 8. “We don’t believe that window’s closed at this point, but it’s a very dynamic situation.”
Nearly a month later, that position is becoming harder to maintain.
U.S. officials have grown more pessimistic since the acting deputy secretary of state, Victoria Nuland, visited Niamey on Aug. 7. Ms. Nuland met with generals there, but her requests to see Mr. Bazoum, as well as the coup leader, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani,…
Read More: With Aid on the Line, Biden Officials Debate ‘Coup’ Finding for Niger