What happens to Social Security payments if no debt-ceiling deal is reached?

Read: A beginner’s guide to understanding and maximizing Social Security benefits

Last month, Yellen said “a default on our debt would produce an economic and financial catastrophe” and “it is unlikely that the federal government would be able to issue payments to millions of Americans, including our military families and seniors who rely on Social Security.”

Also see: Is Social Security a retirement safety net, or a ticking fiscal time bomb?

The government bumped up against the $31.4 trillion limit on borrowing earlier this year, but has used “extraordinary measures” to continue meeting payments.

President Joe Biden has invited House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-California, and other congressional leaders to a meeting May 9 at the White House.

Read: Debt-ceiling standoff: Here’s what’s next, as U.S. faces potential default on June 1

Social Security, which was created in 1935, has never missed a benefit payment.

“We can’t predict how Treasury will operate when the debt limit binds, given that this would be unprecedented. If we’re looking at a contingency plan that Treasury laid out in 2011, we can expect that Treasury will delay payments to Social Security beneficiaries—along with agencies, contractors, and Medicare providers,” said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project and senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution.

And a delay of Social Security payments wouldn’t happen in isolation.

“Some have suggested that Treasury might prioritize certain types of payments, including Social Security payments. In this scenario, other payments to people, businesses, and agencies would see even more substantial cuts,” Edelberg said. “Regardless, Social Security recipients would no doubt feel negative effects if the debt ceiling binds and Treasury cannot pay its obligations, as the negative economic effects would quickly mount and risk triggering a deep recession.”

Others, meanwhile, are confident Social Security payments will be made even if no debt-ceiling deal is reached.

See: This is a good time to rethink how Social Security should be financed

Jason Fichtner, vice president and chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said Social Security payments will get made by giving priority to such payments and swapping debt. 

“I’m 99.9% sure they’ll get paid,” Fichtner said. “There’s plenty of things to scare senior citizens about that are real, like the stock market, their 401(k)s, a possible recession. Let’s not lie about Social Security benefits—they will get paid.”

Steve Robinson, chief economist at the bipartisan Concord Coalition, pointed to a 1996 law that provides an “escape clause” that lets Social Security payments be made. The law would allow Social Security and Medicare trust funds to be drawn down in order for benefits to be paid until the debt limit is raised, while also preventing those funds from being used to pay for any other government programs.

But will Social Security payment be made this summer?

“This is something that people have pondered for decades. Because we’ve never reached this before, the answer is unknowable,” Robinson said. “Despite what everyone is saying and political posturing—it’s never happened before and hopefully we’ll never find out.”

But a lot of essential programs will need funding.

Wayne Winegarden, senior fellow in business and economics at the Pacific Research Institute, said paying Social Security would mean not paying other bills and such decisions are complicated.

“It’s a very dangerous world. How do you not pay the military at this point?” Weingarden said. “It’s irresponsible to take anything off the table. I would imagine Social Security would be a priority. But a lot of very difficult choices need to be made.”