In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that the consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels will rise in the U.S. to 20.2 million barrels per day in 2024.
That would be two percent less than 2019 and three percent less than the record high in 2005, the EIA highlighted in the STEO. The organization also revealed in the report that, despite an increase in total U.S. liquid fuels consumption in its forecast, it projects that the share of refinery-produced petroleum fuels will decline next year.
“Biofuels partially substitute for petroleum-based fuels in transportation in our forecast,” the EIA said in its October STEO.
“We expect the consumption of renewable diesel to increase by more than 30 percent (60,000 barrels per day) in 2024, most of which will directly replace petroleum-based diesel, particularly in California,” the EIA added.
“Hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs) consumption in our forecast grows because of its use as feedstock for petrochemical production,” it continued.
In its October STEO, the EIA forecast that the share of biofuels in U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average six percent, and that the share from HGLs will average 18 percent, in 2024. The former came in at one percent and the latter was 10 percent in 2005, the report highlighted.
“Among biofuels, fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline makes up about 10 percent of every gallon sold, and some states increasingly sell higher blends (up to 85 percent),” the EIA noted in the STEO.
“In addition, financial incentives aimed at increasing the use of renewable diesel in California and other West Coast states have led several refiners to convert their facilities to renewable diesel production,” it added.
“As a result, petroleum-based diesel consumption on the West Coast has decreased. Although HGLs are not substitutes for transportation fuels like gasoline and diesel, low prices and rising production in the United States have contributed to petrochemical expansions, particularly facilities that use ethane as a major feedstock,” the EIA went on to state in the STEO.
In its latest STEO, the EIA projects that average petroleum and other liquids consumption in the U.S. will hit 20.07 million barrels per day in 2023, 20.13 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, 19.97 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2024, 20.23 million barrels per day in the second quarter of next year, 20.40 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 20.30 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
This figure came in at 20.01 million barrels per day in 2022, the latest STEO showed.
In its previous STEO, which was released in September, the EIA forecast that petroleum and other liquids consumption in the U.S. would average 20.14 million barrels per day in 2023 and 20.30 million barrels per day in 2024.
In that STEO, the EIA forecast that the country’s petroleum and other liquids consumption would average 20.29 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2023, 20.00 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, 20.25 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 20.56 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 20.37 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
“In our forecast, U.S. liquid fuels consumption averages 20.1 million barrels per day in 2023, down 0.3 million barrels per day from last month’s forecast,” the EIA said in its previous STEO.
“In addition to reduced gasoline consumption, this forecast incorporates changes to the Petroleum Supply Monthly that reclassified natural gasoline and unfinished oils from product supplied to crude oil supply to more accurately represent the use of these products,” it added.
“These changes also reduce our forecast 2024 consumption by 0.5 million barrels per day to 20.3 million barrels per day,” the EIA continued.
U.S. biofuels consumption came in at 699,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, according to the Energy Institute’s (EI) first, and the overall 72nd, statistical review of world energy, which was released earlier in 2023.
That figure marked 4.3 percent year on year increase and 36.2 percent of global biofuel production last year, the report revealed. The U.S. consumed the most biofuel in the world last year, according to the report, which showed that the U.S. has increased its biofuel consumption by 3.1 percent annually from 2012 to 2022.
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