Dangerous confrontations between Russia and the United States in the skies over Syria point to an escalating shadow war as Russian President Vladimir Putin suffers more losses in Ukraine.
Experts warn that Putin is looking to strike against the U.S. for supporting Ukraine in its defensive war, with Moscow focusing its retaliatory actions in the Middle East to avoid a wider conflict with NATO in Europe.
“We have seen, clearly since at least March of this year, a clear escalation of tensions, driven largely by Russian provocations of the U.S. in Syria,” said Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Middle East and North Africa center.
“Those heightened tensions derive directly from the war in Ukraine, where I think the Russians are looking to stick a finger in the U.S. eye, provoke the U.S. to the extent that they can, in a place that’s a bit removed from the Ukraine conflict arena itself.”
Ukrainian forces are slowly regaining territory that Russia captured when it launched its full-scale invasion against the country in February 2022. In an effort to ramp up pressure on Ukraine’s backers, Russia has abandoned a deal that allowed for the export of grain from Ukraine’s ports and increased attacks on Ukrainian civilian and agricultural infrastructure.
Putin has often framed his war of aggression against Ukraine as a defensive war against the West, and lashed out at the U.S. for its tens of billions of aide to Kyiv in military equipment and economic support.
Now his frustration is translating into dangerous confrontations with the U.S. in Syria.
In back-to-back incidents at the end of July, Russian warplanes fired flares that reportedly damaged two U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drones — weaponized, unmanned aircrafts that cost more than $30 million each.
This followed what the Pentagon said were four other instances last month of Russian aircraft dangerously crossing over the flight path of American warplanes in Syria’s skies.
In a similar incident in March, a Russian jet clipped the wing of an American Reaper drone above the Black Sea, causing it to crash in a move that the Biden administration called “unsafe and unprofessional.”
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, during a press conference in Australia late last month, issued a warning against Putin to rein in his air force.
“We call upon the Russian leadership to make sure that they issue guidance to their troops to abide by the laws of the sky and make sure that they cease this irresponsible behavior,” he said.
“We’ll continue to engage using the established channels to convey our concern, and we’ll continue to engage senior leadership, as appropriate.”
Putin has said publicly he does not seek a direct clash with U.S. forces in Syria, and his military officials have put the blame on American forces for provocations.
“We are always ready for any scenario, but no one wants this,” Putin was quoted as saying July 30 by the Russian, state-owned news agency TASS.
“Our heads of certain departments communicate directly with each other, have the opportunity to consult on any crisis situation. This shows that no one wants clashes.”
About 900 American forces are deployed in northeast Syria conducting counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and alongside Kurdish forces, called the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
The SDF controls a region that is semi-autonomous from Syria’s embattled leader Bashar Assad, who has the backing of Moscow.
In 2015, the U.S. and Russia agreed on a set of guidelines establishing safety in Syria’s skies and setting up a direct line of communication to avoid confrontations and conflict, in particular among warplanes — the so-called deconfliction hotline.
“It is in our collective interests to keep the autonomous administration in northeast Syria secure and stable,” Sinam Mohamad, head of mission at the Syrian Democratic Council to the U.S., told The Hill in a statement.
“The SDF continues to fight ISIS in the region. We hope that the coordination between both Russian and American [militaries] continues to keep the stability and security of the region in general and northeast Syria in particular.”
But some experts say the Biden administration is exercising too much restraint in Syria and other areas where the U.S. confronts Russia.
“We certainly could do it back at them, but we don’t,” said Mary Beth Long, who served as assistant secretary of Defense during the George W. Bush administration.
“What really happens is, you issue orders to your pilots and NATO folks, to basically be careful and do everything…
Read More: Under pressure in Ukraine, Putin lashes out at US in Syria