Ukraine’s inability to demonstrate decisive success on the battlefield is stoking fears that the conflict is becoming a stalemate and international support could erode. A new, classified U.S. intelligence report has predicted that the counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol this year.
Meanwhile, a war weary Ukrainian public is eager for leaders in Kyiv to secure victory and in Washington, calls to cut back on aid to Ukraine are expected to be amplified in the run up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Without more advanced weapons slated to bolster the front line or fully committing forces still being held in reserve, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to secure a breakthrough in the counteroffensive, according to analysts.
“The question here is which of the two sides is going to be worn out sooner,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Center for New American Security, who visited Ukraine in July. “We shouldn’t expect the achievement of any major military objectives overnight.”
Gady said that Russia and Ukraine are now in an “attrition” phase, attempting to sap each other’s resources rather than secure significant territorial advances. With its ground forces largely stymied, Ukraine has mounted a flurry of new drone strikes on Russian soil, including targets in Moscow, but the strikes have caused minimal damage.
When asked about the counteroffensive’s progress, Western and Ukrainian officials call for patience, describing the fight as slower than expected, but insisting that it is steadily making gains.
However, the window of time for Ukraine to conduct offensive operations is limited. Last year, Ukrainian forces made little progress after recapturing the southern city of Kherson in early November, as inhospitable weather set in.
With its ground forces advancing slowly, Ukraine is using drone strikes to expand its military’s reach as it waits for more advanced munitions and training — including greater air power, said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of defense.
“We don’t have the F-16s yet so we have to find way to make up for their absence and drones are somewhat used to compensate for the lack of aviation,” he said.
Ukraine’s main internal intelligence agency was behind the maritime drone attacks that recently struck a major Russian port and a Russian oil tanker near occupied Crimea, according to a Ukrainian intelligence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
Kyiv’s statements on attacks in Moscow are more opaque. The government publicly distances itself from the strikes, while some officials acknowledge involvement.
But analysts caution that while the drone attacks can shift attention away from Ukraine’s slow-moving ground counteroffensive, they are unlikely to tip the balance of the war in Kyiv’s favor.
“The Ukrainians just don’t have enough capacity to build enough drones and strike deep inside Russian territory at enough targets to erode Russia’s will to fight,” said Bob Hamilton, a retired U.S. Army colonel and head of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program.
Russia also has sophisticated methods to combat Ukrainian drones with jammers and detection. The Kremlin claims to have largely thwarted a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks over the past week. On Saturday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it downed 20 Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea overnight.
“I don’t think a single weapons system can be a silver bullet,” Hamilton said.
Ukraine has been also striking Russian logistical targets with longer-range munitions far from the front line for months, but so far the effect of such strikes has not been reflected on the Russian front line, said Gady, who recently visited Ukraine.
“We know that the Russian position has deteriorated, but it hasn’t deteriorated to the degree where you could expect an imminent collapse,” he said. A campaign of longer-range strikes, also referred to as the “deep battle,” can be described as successful when the…
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