Nate Silver, political pollster and founder of FiveThirtyEight released his highly anticipated forecasting model for the 2024 presidential election. According to Silver’s predictions, the presumptive Republican nominee, Donald Trump, is currently favored to defeat President Joe Biden in a rematch of their 2020 showdown.
“When the model was finally done on Sunday night, it turned out that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than I’d anticipated at Manifest — although Biden retains highly viable paths to victory,” Silver said.
Trump and Biden will face off on Thursday in the first presidential debate of the 2024 election.
Silver detailed the complexities of creating such a model, emphasizing the numerous choices required in statistical modeling. He explained that even seemingly straightforward decisions, like calculating a polling average, involve many parameters, including which polls to include and how to weigh them.
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He elaborated on integrating fundamental factors such as incumbency and economic conditions, acknowledging the “infinite ‘researcher degrees of freedom’” in applying these elements.
Despite these challenges, Silver is unequivocal about his model’s current favorite: “The candidate who I honestly think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden),” he stated.
Silver pointed out a critical factor often overlooked by pundits: “If the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied. So, if we’re being honest, pundits who obsess over whether Biden is one point ahead in national polls are kind of missing the point.”
Silver’s model, which ran 40,000 simulations, suggests that Trump has a 65.7% chance of winning the Electoral College, with an average margin of 287.2 electoral votes. Additionally, it predicts that Biden is slightly more likely (51%) to win the popular vote, but by a margin of just 47.2%-47.1%.
Interestingly, SilveSilver’sl differs from the current FiveThirtyEight forecast, which narrowly favors Biden (51%) to win the Electoral College over Trump.
Silver will undoubtedly be a key point of reference for political analysts and voters alike as the election approaches, offering a data-driven glimpse into a highly contentious race.
Jeremy Yurow is a politics reporting fellow based in Hawaii for the USA TODAY Network. You can reach him at JYurow@gannett.com or on X, formerly Twitter @JeremyYurow
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