All eyes are on the major central bank policy decisions this week and the Fed will be arguably the most important one to watch in that regard. Market players will be waiting with bated breath to see what and how the Fed communicates after the almost certain 25 bps rate hike that will be delivered on Wednesday.
Fed funds futures are implying a 88% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the moment and here’s how the curve looks like today:
It’s still roughly in the middle of what we saw on 13 April, when the banking turmoil has subsided, and that of 19 April, when inflation jitters peaked across broader markets.
Essentially, the pricing suggests two rate cuts before the year-end and we will see how the Fed takes to that and what their view on the rates outlook will be later this week. That could really stir things up and cause some real kicking and screaming in markets, if the Fed is adamant on its higher for longer narrative.
Looking at some of the more interesting charts right now, yen pairs are continuing to intrigue with USD/JPY now nearing its 200-day moving average just under 137.00. Meanwhile, EUR/JPY saw a breakout to its highest since 2008 above 150.00 and it’s hard to pick at any resistance levels on that chart for now. It’s all about the momentum and watching USD/JPY for any clues of any further yen weakness at this point.
Then, we also have GBP/JPY running close to its October high of 172.12, so that will be one to watch on the week.
Elsewhere, there is gold which continues to poke and prod at daily support around $1,981 over the last two weeks. That is one to keep an eye out for as well during the course of the week.
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