Monday’s good-news-is-bad-news manufacturing data sparked concern over the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut plans and kept a lid on sentiment.
Several key events over the next few weeks could impact when the central bank may or may not start lowering the federal funds rate including this Friday’s jobs report, which economists expect to show a still-strong labor market.
S&P Global kicked off this morning’s relatively busy economic calendar with the release of its March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which measures manufacturing activity. The index slipped to 51.9 in March from February’s 52.2, though it was the third straight month it was above the 50 mark that indicates expansion.
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Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management said its Manufacturing PMI swung into expansion territory in March, arriving at 50.3% vs February’s 47.8%. However, the data also showed that the ISM’s Manufacturing Price Index – a measure of inflation – rose to an 18-month high of 55.8% last month.
Recent hotter-than-expected economic reports have pushed back expectations on the Fed’s rate-cut plans and today’s data continued that trend. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are currently pricing in a 57% chance the first quarter-point rate cut will come in June, down from 64% one week ago. The odds of it happening in July are at 52%, up from last week’s 48%.
What’s more, commentary from central bank officials seems they’re in no hurry to lower the federal funds rate if they don’t need to. Indeed, in a moderated discussion last Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will be careful about its decision to cut interest rates “because it can be. The economy is strong: We see very strong growth.”
AT&T stock slips after data breach news
In single-stock news, AT&T (T) fell 0.6% on news of a massive cybersecurity attack. In a statement, the telecommunications company said it is investigating the data breach which likely took place in 2019 or earlier and impacted 73 million former and current customers.
AT&T also said that the incident has not had “a material impact on its operations.”
Buffett buys more Liberty SiriusXM shares
Elsewhere, Liberty SiriusXM Group Series C (LSXMK) dropped 1.4% even after regulatory filings revealed Warren Buffett‘s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B, -0.1%) bought 8.9 million shares over the final two weeks of Q1.
Form 4 filings also showed Buffett’s holding company acquired 3.8 million shares of Liberty SiriusXM Group Series A (LSXMA, -1.3%), the class with voting rights. The two stocks have been a part of the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio since Q2 2016.
The full list of all the stocks Buffett bought and sold in the first quarter will be released next month.
As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% to 39,566 and the S&P 500 shed 0.2% to 5,243. The Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.1% gain to 16,396 on strength in several mega-cap stocks such as Alphabet (GOOGL, +3.0%) and Meta Platforms (META, +1.2%).