Homelessness is a more nuanced story. According to an authoritative annual report published in December by the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the number of Americans experiencing unsheltered homelessness was 256,000 in 2023, up from 226,000 just before the pandemic — an increase of about 13 percent. The lowest number in recent history, according to H.U.D., was 173,000 in 2015; the highest was 255,000 in 2007. The recent increases are tragic and demand public attention, but also are gradual; for every 10 unsheltered Americans on the eve of the pandemic, there are now 11.
The bulk of the homelessness is concentrated in a handful of states: California, which accounts for more than a quarter of the national total, New York, Florida, Washington and Texas. But in California as a whole, homelessness grew only 6 percent between 2020 and 2022, according to H.U.D.; in New York State, it fell by almost 19 percent.
In certain cities, there was more disconcerting growth. Nearly a quarter of all national homelessness is experienced in New York City and Los Angeles, according to H.U.D. The population in New York grew from nearly 78,000 just before the pandemic to 88,000 in 2023; in Los Angeles the number of people experiencing homelessness grew by about 12 percent between 2022 and 2023. And although San Francisco is often described as the country’s homelessness epicenter, between 2013 and 2022, homelessness grew by just 6 percent there; between 2019 and 2022, the number of people experiencing unsheltered homelessness in the city actually fell to 4,400 from 5,200. In general, the pandemic years have not marked a new era for urban homelessness in America, but an extension of the longer-term trend: Homelessness is steadily growing, and its concentration in a small number of cities suggests, among other remedies, the straightforward need for much more housing supply.
Drug use appears to be a growing problem, though the data can be patchy and the pattern varies from city to city. In San Francisco, alcohol and drug use rates among the city’s homeless grew to 52 percent from 41 percent between 2017 and 2022, according to one survey. In Los Angeles, overdose deaths among the city’s homeless roughly doubled between 2019 and 2021, and in New York, overdoses in shelters nearly doubled over the same period. In Portland, Ore., drug use helped drive a 53 percent increase in deaths among the city’s homeless in 2021.
But the more enduring legacy of urban “doom” may simply be that cities remain emptier than they were. New York had one of the more successful post-pandemic recoveries in commercial real estate, but visits to offices are still 19 percent below prepandemic levels; as of February 2023, subway ridership is only about 66 percent of prepandemic levels. Nationwide, visits to offices are down 38 percent from previous levels; in San Francisco, they are down 53 percent. According to the University of Toronto’s Downtown Recovery project, foot traffic in many high-profile cities is hovering at or below 70 percent of previous levels; in 90 percent of cities’ downtowns, car traffic remains below pre-Covid levels.
Read More: Opinion | American Cities Aren’t Doomed After All