At least on paper, Democrats face a bleak outlook for the 2024 election in increasingly red Ohio.
The party’s U.S. Senate majority relies on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) pulling out another improbable victory. Their chances for a U.S. House majority will rise or fall on whether three battleground incumbents can defend their seats. And for the first time in decades, the state will not be a presidential election battleground, leaving Ohio Democrats on their own.
But it’s now clear that Democrats have a unique and powerful political edge in Ohio that will ensure they are competitive: abortion rights—and Ohio Republicans’ determination to restrict them no matter how clearly the state’s voters tell them not to.
In last week’s elections, 56 percent of Ohioans voted to approve a ballot referendum called Issue One, which enshrined a right to an abortion in the state’s constitution and effectively overturned the state’s GOP-backed “heartbeat bill” banning abortions after six weeks.
Despite the fact that the state GOP establishment campaigned heavily against Issue One, the right to an abortion won majority support from voters in 18 counties that went for Donald Trump in 2020.
Unchastened by the result, anti-abortion Ohio Republicans are vowing to continue the fight against abortion rights. In particular, a hard-right squad of state lawmakers is scheming to block the implementation of Issue One, and subvert the will of the electorate, through the legislature.
Their moves ensure that abortion—and the state GOP’s resoundingly unpopular stance against it—will become perhaps the defining theme of the 2024 elections in Ohio.
“The national debate will be about a national abortion ban, but the fact that we just had this decisive election here—and that the Republicans are trying to get around it all of a sudden—makes it front and center in the 2024 cycle,” said David Pepper, the chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party from 2015 to 2020.
Some Ohio Republicans, Pepper told The Daily Beast, are insisting on “not just on embracing a position Ohioans don’t agree with, but embracing a position of, we don’t care how Ohio voters voted.”
In Ohio, Democrats and allied campaign organizations are planning to make abortion a focal point of their messaging next year. And they could spend millions blanketing the airwaves with ads centered on the GOP’s anti-abortion positions and rhetoric.
For other Republicans, the electoral risks of their abortion push are obvious—or at least should be.
“Looking at the result of Issue One, we have to sound the alarm,” said a longtime Ohio GOP operative, who requested anonymity to share their thoughts candidly. “Republicans are bleeding out in the Ohio suburbs. The Senate race is not gerrymandered like the legislature or the congressional delegation.”
“Ohio Democrats have found their silver bullet to run 10 points ahead of Joe Biden in the Ohio suburbs,” the operative continued. “Their silver bullet is Republicans being dumb enough to nominate undisciplined, gaffe-prone abortion extremists who will spend the general election on the defensive. It gives Sherrod Brown a fighting chance.”
Indeed, the Republicans running for Ohio’s most competitive federal races at least campaigned hard against Issue One. Some have long records of hardline anti-abortion rhetoric and positions. Many will face pressure from the party base—particularly those in primary battles—to support efforts to undo the new abortion law.
Already, some leading Ohio Republicans have indicated they do not plan to stray far from the party’s anti-abortion messaging. “Giving up on the unborn is not an option,” said Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) in a lengthy Twitter thread. “It’s politically dumb and morally repugnant. Instead, we need to understand why we lost this battle so we can win the war.”
Ohio’s abortion battle has clear national implications. With Sen. Joe Manchin not running for re-election in deep-red West Virginia, Brown will be one of the top two Democratic targets for Senate Republicans, along with Sen. Jon Tester of Montana. If Republicans win the presidency in 2024, defeating Brown and Tester will win them a 50-50 Senate majority, if they also defend incumbents in Texas and Florida.
In 2022, Ohio was an unexpected bright spot for House Democrats. Rep. Greg Landsman flipped the Cincinnati seat held by former Rep. Steve Chabot, while Rep. Emilia Sykes won in a tough Cleveland-area district and Rep. Marcy Kaptur defended one of the most Trump-friendly seats of any Democrat. With a House majority just four seats out of Democrats’ reach, holding these three Ohio seats will be crucial to their hopes for victory in 2024.
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