USD: Tracking Treasuries
Wednesday’s session was all about the US bond market and the sell-off at the long end of the curve. US 30-year Treasury yields were briefly 15bp higher. And far from the benign bullish disinversion of the curve we saw after the soft June CPI print, yesterday’s move was a more negative bullish steepening. Higher risk-free rates hit US growth stocks (Nasdaq -2%) and also hit ‘growth’ currencies, such as the commodity complex and the unloved Scandi currencies.
At the heart of yesterday’s move was the US fiscal story. Despite the Democrat administration and its supporters in the media decrying Fitch’s decision to remove the sovereign’s AAA status on Tuesday evening, there is genuine concern over US fiscal dynamics. And it looks like the Fitch release was carefully timed. Yesterday also saw a slightly higher than expected US quarterly refunding announcement, where $103bn of 3, 10, and 30-year bonds will be sold next week. The fact that fiscal dynamics were in play yesterday was reflected in wider US asset swap spreads (Treasuries underperforming the US swap curve) and the US yield curve steepening.
As above, higher risk-free rates are providing greater headwinds to risk asset markets – including equities. We are also seeing some slightly higher cross-market volatility readings which may prompt investors to partially de-risk from carry trade strategies (good for the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on the crosses, bad for the high yielders). We will also be interested to see how the Brazilian real performs today after Brazil’s central bank started its easing cycle last night with a 50bp cut and promised similar magnitude cuts over coming meetings. The currency could edge a little lower today given the international environment.
While the US Treasury story will be with us into next week’s auctions, the focus today will be on the initial jobless claims (these have been moving markets) and the services ISM index. Barring a significant rise in claims or a big dip in the services ISM, it looks like the dollar will hang onto recent gains into what should be a decent US July nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow.
DXY could grind its way toward the 103.50 area.
Chris Turner
EUR: An episodic correction
EUR/USD is currently going through its third significant correction of the year. The corrections in February and May were worth 5% and 4%, respectively. The current correction is around 3%. These corrections largely come on the back of heavy one-way positioning, given that most expect EUR/USD to be higher by year-end – the current consensus is for 1.12. We would warn against getting too pessimistic on EUR/USD because of the European Central Bank. True, the market has taken 15bp out of the expected ECB tightening cycle over recent weeks, but as our colleague Peter Vanden Houte outlined yesterday, core inflation is still high and the September ECB meeting should still be considered ‘live’ for a 25bp rate hike.
For today, the eurozone calendar is light and EUR/USD will again be driven by US inputs. Unless US activity data surprisingly softens today, expect EUR/USD to continue to press the 100-day moving average near 1.0930, below which there is an outside risk to the 1.0850 area. We do, however, believe this dip should be temporary and continue to forecast 1.12 by the end of September on further signs of US disinflation and finally some softer US activity data, too.
Elsewhere we see Swiss July CPI data today. The headline rate is expected to fall further to 1.7% year-on-year and the core to remain at 1.8%. Despite this, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to remain hawkish and hike 25bp at its September meeting. The SNB also continues to guide the nominal Swiss franc higher. Given that USD/CHF is now rallying, the SNB may need more of that trade-weighted Swiss franc appreciation to come via EUR/CHF. That could mean that 0.9650 now proves the top of a new – and lower – 0.9500-0.9650 range.
Chris Turner
GBP: Some downside risks to sterling
The Bank of England announces its interest rate decision and releases a new Monetary Policy Report (MPR) at 1300CET today. Most analysts expect a 25bp hike in the Bank Rate to 5.25%, but a significant minority are looking for a 50bp rate hike. Money markets price around 32bp of tightening today.
Despite the welcome UK June CPI figures, no one expects the BoE to let its guard down on inflation and its statement will likely retain words to the effect that rates could be raised further were there evidence of more persistent price pressures in the economy. The market will also be looking out for the CPI forecasts…
Read More: FX Daily: US Treasury wobble unnerves risk assets | article