Target and touch totals are important, but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.
What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).
Snap counts and depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are way more valuable than RB carries) are also important but generally will not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.
Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week but all the weeks of the season will be archived so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also note as the season progresses that I gave great thought in doing these stats weekly and not for the season. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats just smoothes everything out to a more meaningless middle. Remember, as our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”
Touches
So obviously we’re back — by popular demand! We’ll get you through Week 16, and thus your playoffs. Thanks for the kind words and support. Also, happy holidays!
Devin Singletary has turned into a bell cow. Again, kids. This is why you wait on running backs in drafts. Look at the top guys: Kyren Williams (first), Singletary (third), Ty Chandler (fifth), Rachaad White (sixth), Raheem Mostert (13th) — all picks outside the Top 100 or available on waivers. Even James Cook (fourth) was a zeroRB (available after Round 5).
You can add Zamir White (10th) to that above list if Josh Jacobs (quad) is out again. We won’t have an inkling until Wednesday at the earliest.
“Tyler Allgeier 29.4%, 15th in a must game” should be on Arthur Smith’s coaching tombstone. Yes, Bijan Robinson was in fumble jail most of the day. I don’t know how long his sentence is before he’s paroled.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is another guy who you could have picked up in Week 15 and profited from. But we’re told that Isiah Pacheco will be back this week, though that was a weird announcement off a surgery (shoulder). Either way, the proof of concept is wait on RB, cobble together enough points to survive and come playoff time you can find starting RBs with little effort/competition.
I thought D’Onta Foreman would lead the Bears in touches again but he was firmly in a three-man committee. So do not consider him an option.
Gus Edwards is another capable back who was free loot, and he’s likely to finish in the Top 20 in Week 16 with massive goal-line equity now that Keaton Mitchell is out for the year with his torn ACL. Edwards has 11 rushing TDs on just 163 carries. He’s almost certain to get 15 carries and a TD in Week 16.
Targets
Chris Godwin’s usage is off the charts. I was skeptical after the last week, but it’s a trend now. Unlike last week, Godwin’s efficiency was great, too. He’s not a touchdown scorer, so his upside is capped. He has a high floor for Week 16.
DeAndre Hopkins was unproductive but still was tied for second in the model. So he must be started, obviously, if you survived (or more likely had a bye).
Terry McLaurin had a nice number finally, finishing tied for fourth. He gets the Jets this week and that’s bad on paper but did not hurt Jaylen Waddle in Week 15. The Jets, for some reason, do not have Sauce Gardner shadow the No. 1 WR, so teams just avoid him completely and tie Gardner up with secondary and even tertiary targets. What does Robert Saleh do exactly? I’d make the offense pay a steep price to avoid Gardner, like if I was playing Madden with my nephew. But this is only the NFL.
David Njoku was the No. 1 TE and No. 8 overall. I see him as a Top 60 pick next year but that seems to be a minority view given the comments in my Scouting Notebook.
Nico Collins is likely back in Week 16, but Noah Brown (ninth) deserves a start anyway given how he’s dominated three of the past five games he’s played and was likely limited in the other two. C.J. Stroud should be back, too. Remember, just 22% of concussion victims play the next week.
Rashee Rice is hyper efficient because he gets such easily converted targets from a top QB. So he’s more valuable than his ranking here, which was 27th. That holds true for 2024, too, in the event the Chiefs, as I expect, do not add a veteran wideout of consequence.
Jaylen Warren topped our running backs with a 23.1% target share (30th). Again, 15% is the magic number for RBs, typically. But this Pittsburgh offense is very bad. Still, Warren gives…
Read More: Fantasy football market share report: Kyren Williams, Devin Singletary and more