In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) slightly lowered its 2024 U.S. crude oil production forecast.
The EIA now sees the country’s crude oil output averaging 13.20 million barrels per day this year. In its previous STEO, which was released in April, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.21 million barrels per day. Both STEOs peg 2023 U.S. crude oil output at 12.93 million barrels per day.
According to its latest STEO, the EIA is projecting that, in 2024, Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), will produce 10.99 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.81 million barrels per day, and Alaska will produce 0.41 million barrels per day.
In its April STEO, the EIA forecast that, this year, Lower 48 states, excluding the GOM, would produce 10.96 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico would produce 1.84 million barrels per day, and Alaska would produce 0.41 million barrels per day.
Both STEOs put Lower 48 states production at 10.64 million barrels per day, Federal Gulf of Mexico production at 1.86 million barrels per day, and Alaska production at 0.43 million barrels per day in 2023.
Total world crude oil production is projected to average 77.12 million barrels per day in the EIA’s latest STEO. On top of the U.S. figure of 13.20 million barrels per day, the EIA is forecasting that total OPEC+ production will hit 36.16 million barrels per day and non-OPEC+ production, excluding the U.S., will average 27.75 million barrels per day.
The EIA’s May STEO put total world crude oil output at 76.76 million barrels per day in 2023, comprising 37.07 million barrels per day from OPEC+, 26.77 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+, excluding the U.S., and 12.93 million barrels per day from the United States.
The OPEC+ total refers to OPEC members subject to OPEC+ agreements, plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Russia, South Sudan, and Sudan, the EIA highlighted in its latest STEO.
According to data on the EIA website, which shows yearly U.S. field production of crude oil from the 1850s to 2023 and was last updated on April 30, U.S. field production of crude oil has never seen a yearly average of 13 million barrels per day or above. The closest it came was in 2023, when it averaged 12.927 million barrels per day, the data outlined.
That production figure is the highest in the EIA data set. The second highest was seen in 2019, at 12.311 million, and the third highest was seen in 2022, at 11.911 million, according to the EIA data.
Data on the EIA website showing monthly U.S. field production of crude oil from January 1920 to February 2024, which was also last updated on April 30, outlined that U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more in a month on seven occasions.
These came in November 2019, at 13.000 million barrels per day, August 2023, at 13.041 million barrels per day, September 2023, at 13.247 million barrels per day, October 2023, at 13.219 million barrels per day, November 2023, at 13.295 million barrels per day, December 2023, at 13.264 million barrels per day, and February 2024, at 13.154 million barrels per day, the data shows.
The next release date of yearly U.S. field production of crude oil data and monthly U.S. field production of crude oil data from the EIA is currently scheduled for August 30, 2024, and May 31, 2024, respectively.
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