NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Oct 1 (Reuters) – U.S. government
data on Friday revealed that U.S. corn, soybean and wheat
supplies a month ago were all nearly identical to year-ago
levels, but Chicago futures are significantly lower than a year
ago and speculators have recently been in selling mode.
In the week ended Sept. 26, money managers increased their
net short position in CBOT corn futures and options to 168,606
contracts from 144,815 in the prior week. This marks their
biggest net short in corn since August 2020, and it nearly ties
2016 for the date’s most bearish corn view.
The move went against expectations for slight fund buying,
as most-active CBOT corn futures had drifted fractionally
higher for the week.
Speculators have spent much of this year selling corn, apart
from a couple scares for the U.S. corn crop caused by unusually
dry weather. Corn optimism peaked in early 2021 and has been
slowly trending downward since, owing recently to an expansion
in gross short positions.
Speculative optimism in soybeans peaked in late 2020 and has
been oscillating lower ever since, though investors have not yet
flipped to the short side. Money managers’ net long in CBOT
soybean futures and options dropped to a four-month low of
30,058 contracts as of Sept. 26, down from 45,832 a week
earlier.
Most-active CBOT soybeans fell 1% in the week ended
Sept. 26, soymeal futures rose 1% but soyoil
plunged more than 4%. Money managers expanded their net long in
CBOT soymeal futures and options by about 3,300 on the week to
59,196 contracts.
They also cut their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and
options to a three-month low of 35,050 contracts from 47,064 a
week earlier. That is funds’ least bullish late-September soyoil
stance in four years.
Funds maintained their huge net short in CBOT wheat futures
and options, which is the second largest for the time of year
after 2016. Wheat futures were about 1% higher through
Sept. 26, and money managers’ resulting net short of 96,384
contracts was marginally below the previous week’s level.
Bearish sentiment increased last week in Kansas City and
Minneapolis wheat futures and options, and money managers’ net
shorts in both have become the largest since August 2020.
CONTINUED SELLING
Friday marked several milestones for CBOT grain and oilseed
futures, the most significant being a 6.4% dive in CBOT wheat
futures, the biggest single-day decline since March 2022.
Friday’s close of $5.41-1/2 per bushel is a four-year low for
the date and down 41% from a year ago.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday published final
U.S. wheat production estimates for 2023, and those came in
above all trade estimates. However, Sept. 1 wheat stocks landed
relatively close to expectations and were basically the same as
in the last two years.
Most-active Kansas City wheat futures on Friday fell
to their lowest price since July 2021, and Minneapolis futures
hit new contract lows in each month through July 2024.
Sept. 1 U.S. soybean stocks were above expectations but
similar to the past two years, though soybean futures hit
three-month lows on Friday. Soymeal futures touched six-week
lows on Friday and soyoil fell to three-month lows.
Sept. 1 corn stocks were lower than predicted for the fourth
time in the last five years, though corn futures moved lower in
sympathy with wheat and soy. Corn futures have held up much
better than wheat, soybeans or soybean products over the last
month, though their settle on Friday of $4.76-3/4 per bushel is
30% lower than a year ago.
Over the last three sessions, losses in most-active CBOT
futures are as follows: corn 0.6%, soybeans 2.1%, wheat 8.1%,
soymeal 2.9%, soyoil 3.3%.
During the month of September, losses in most-active CBOT
futures were as follows: corn 0.3%, soybeans 6.8%, wheat 10%,
soymeal 5.6%, soyoil 10.6%.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed
above are her own.
(Reporting by Karen Braun; Editing by Sonali Paul)
Read More: Commodities : Funds sell more CBOT corn and beans ahead of US stock data -Braun