An unseen threat is lurking beneath the surface. The suspected Houthi attacks on undersea cables in the Red Sea are a timely reminder of a new reality. The age of seabed warfare, where undersea infrastructure will increasingly be targeted, has arrived.
Predicting the future is always tricky, yet the direction here is clear. Recent situations in the Baltic, North Sea, Black Sea and now the Red Sea point to a change in way wars, and hybrid warfare, will be fought. Attacks on undersea infrastructure will likely become more common, even expected.
A victim of future wars might be your internet connection when a cable is cut. Or your heating bill as a gas pipeline or electricity cable is blown up. And these events might take place thousands of miles away, and hundreds of meters below sea level. These new threats are not well understood.
A New Threat
It is tempting to point to historic incidents of seabed warfare. When Britain cut the German undersea telegraph cables at the outbreak of World War One. Or the U.S. Navy’s famous Operation Ivy Bells to tap Soviet undersea cables in the Cold War. But a lot has changed since then which has transformed this threat.
The world is ever more connected. Power, natural gas, oil, and of course the internet all rely on undersea infrastructure. And data centers and nuclear power plants could go the same way. Thanks to this connectivity, it is conceivable that an attack on an offshore wind farm in Sweden could be felt in electricity bills in Ireland. These are all susceptible to attack. Governments are only slowly coming to terms with this new dimension to naval warfare.
The Seabed Is Ripe For Hybrid Warfare
The inherent ambiguity and indirect nature makes undersea infrastructure tempting targets for hybrid warfare. In the absence of a clear culprit, and slow process of attribution (if any), allows activists and cynical politicians can fill the void with misinformation. Many are only too willing to believe conspiracy theories and irresponsible speculation.
Attacks can also be relatively unsophisticated. It can be by divers in shallow water, or by a ship dragging an anchor or fishing net. Even if the culprit is known, it can be difficult to prove that it was deliberate.
As well as sophisticated navies, small countries and non-state actors can leverage this. As is suspected in the Red Sea. Or the many incidents off West Africa. Hamas built uncrewed underwater vehicles (UUVs) to target Israeli offshore natural gas infrastructure. That has yet to score a hit, but the threat is real.
Seabed Warfare As part of Future Hot Wars
It is now realistic that attacks on seabed infrastructure will be common in hot wars. It seems inconceivable that a Chinese attack on Taiwan wouldn’t involve at least threat of seabed warfare. The island is connected to America and the world by a finite number of undersea internet cables. Severing these would in effect disconnect the island, making defense and coordination much harder.
Historically, and right now, Russia is the most invested in offensive seabed warfare capabilities. It has a fleet of nuclear submarines designed to carry smaller nuclear submarines which can interfere with seabed infrastructure deep below the surface. This is complemented by specialist ships, most famously Yantar, and many other assets.
But it doesn’t necessarily require these traditional specialist assets. The increasing maturity of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) may shape those threat going forward. An AUV could be launched from hundreds or even thousands of miles away, approach its target unseen, and blow it up. It could locate the cable or pipe using sonar or any of a multitude of methods open to engineers and planners. And it could deposit a bomb, in the manner used for neutralizing mines, or simply blow itself up.
Attacking seabed targets will never be easy. It is inherently more challenging than attacking above ground infrastructure. So it will require high quality intelligence and careful planning. But the technical means to achieve it is well within reach for most navies. And an increasing number of AUV manufactures have the requisite knowhow to built suitable vehicles.
Read More: Cable Attack: New Undersea Threat Is Starting To Reshape Naval Wars