President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled a nuanced shift in Kyiv’s stance on the Russia-occupied Crimea, telling a television interviewer he believes if advancing Ukrainian forces reach the northern border of the Black Sea peninsula, the Russian military might eventually leave without a battle.
“If we are on the administrative or conditional borders with Crimea, I believe that it is possible to politically press the demilitarization of Russia on the territory of Ukrainian Crimea. I believe that this would be better,” Zelensky said, in a nationally televised hour-long interview.
Zelensky’s declaration that Crimea, a territory illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 and held up by Russian state propaganda as a full-fledged part of Russia never “really belonging” to Ukraine, might return to Kyiv’s sovereignty without a conventional military offensive marked a nuanced – but nonetheless significant – shift in official Ukrainian rhetoric on Crimea.
More than 80 percent of Ukrainian voters consider the Crimea territory that was stolen by Moscow should be returned to Kyiv’s control by armed force. Both the Zelensky administration and even Ukrainian allies – most recently Polish President Andrzej Duda have in recent months said Russian de-militarization of the peninsula, which is absolutely rejected by the Kremlin, must take place for the Russo-Ukrainian War to end.
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“The de-occupation of Crimea and the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity are necessary prerequisites not only for security in the Black Sea-Azov basin but also for the stability of the global security architecture. We cannot allow Putin to achieve his goals concerning Ukraine,” Duda said in an Aug. 23 speech at an international forum on Crimea and ending Russian occupation there.
But top Kyiv officials, since mid-August, have subtly walked back from that hardline position, messaging that Ukraine expects to recover Crimea not by full-scale invasion and total liberation, but over a longer term. The first step, they are saying, is effective “military action” against Russian army installations and troops in Crimea and leveraging punishing Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) strikes now into later Kremlin concessions.
The Ukrainian leader’s comments came one day after Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), told the Krym.Realii information platform on Aug. 26, one day before Zelensky’s declaration, he believes Crimea will return to Kyiv’s control not by military conquest alone, but by combined application of diplomatic pressure and “military actions” against Kremlin targets.
“The combined way is not only diplomatic, not only military but there are also many other different options. But without military action, this is impossible,” Budanov said. “We will bring back everything in the combined way… At present, I will not give an explanation of what it [a combined way strategy] is.”
Less than 48 hours before Budanov made those murky hints about multi-dimensional pressure tactics, on Aug. 24, according to multiple reports, a wave of kamikaze drones slammed into barracks and equipment storage buildings owned by Russia’s 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of its Black Sea Fleet, near the village Perevalne, in Crimea.
Pro-Russia information platforms said at least 42 drones packing explosives entered Crimean air space, and all were shot down or put out of action by jamming, with almost no losses or damage to civilians or military. It was the single largest Ukrainian drone strike of the war, and nine drones did manage to reach Perevalne base, “slightly damaging” two trucks, Russian military blogger Vladimir Rogov reported. Kyiv’s attacks against Crimean targets were becoming more sophisticated, and the drones that Perevalne took map-of-the-earth flight path between mountain peaks, he said.
Independent Ukrainian information platforms, all citing an Aug. 26 AFU special operations press release describing it all as “Operation Top Gun,” confirmed the attack’s target was the 126th Brigade and facilities around it, and that the drone wave exploited rugged topography in the area to evade air defenses,…
Read More: Bombardment First, Physical Liberation Later