As Ukraine marks two years since Russia’s invasion, Europe is facing difficult

CNN
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As the world prepares to mark the second anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion this week, Europe must ask itself some searching questions about the war that unexpectedly erupted on its borders – and how it will approach the next 12 months.

Arguably most important among those questions: How long can it practically sustain such draining financial support for Ukraine?

That thought is not new, but is increasingly echoed privately in some corners of officialdom. It also reflects several current grim truths.

The war has been deadlocked for some time, while last week, Ukraine was forced to withdraw from the key town of Avdiivka after months of fierce fighting, marking its worst defeat since the fall of Bakhmut in May.

Money desperately needed from the United States is stuck, having passed the Senate but awaiting House approval. Unity between the European Union (EU) and NATO is starting to fray, with nearly every big decision held up and threatened with veto.

No serious Western voices want to abandon Kyiv, but it’s undeniable that fatigue is setting in as the bills grow.

Since the start of the crisis, the EU and its regional allies have spent more than $100 billion funding Ukraine’s defense effort, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker.

Earlier this month, EU leaders agreed to a $54 billion package for Ukraine between now and 2027. The United Kingdom, arguably the major security player in the region, has also pledged more than $15 billion to Ukraine since 2022. For context, according to the Kiel Institute the US has spent $66 billion, with another $60 billion in the pipeline.

While the West’s resounding support for Ukraine since 2022 has surprised many in the diplomatic world, the longer the war drags on, the more the fatigue grows.

Between there being no end to the conflict in sight, and competition for political attention in the Middle East – as well as domestic concerns from inflation-led cost-of-living crises around the world – spending huge sums on Ukraine could become politically harder to stomach for governments.

The political pressure on spending will become more visible as European Parliamentary elections take place in June, as well as national polls in multiple countries including the UK, a key Ukrainian ally.

European officials need only look at the difficulty US President Joe Biden is having with his own Ukraine package to see the real-world impact of funding a costly overseas war when it comes into direct contact with domestic politics.

Adding to these inauspicious distractions is the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House next year.

Trump has not clearly stated what his Ukraine policy would be, save his claim that he could end the war within 24 hours. The former president’s anti-NATO rhetoric, general disdain for European institutions and odd admiration for Putin are well-known.

While no one knows what another Trump presidency might materially mean, it is plausible to envisage a worst-case scenario for Ukraine, where it loses momentum on the ground while the new occupant of the White House decides that America has spent enough already.

This is an alarming prospect for European officials who already believe Putin is digging in and trying to wait out the West.

This is where the next 12 months become crucial for Ukraine’s European allies. It is…